Tottenham faces uphill battle against Arsenal

Soccer Betting Lines

09/14/2007 - London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tottenham manager Martin Jol is on the hot seat as his club has won just one of its first five games, and things will not get any easier on Saturday when Spurs welcome London-rivals Arsenal to White Hart Lane.

Jol faces a lineup decision ahead of the match with captain Ledley King unavailable because he is still recovering from knee surgery. Young defender Younes Kaboul is likely to take his place, but the former Auxerre man will have a heavy challenge in front of him as he will have to cope with a strong Arsenal attack that features striker Robin Van Persie.

The Dutchman has done an admirable job filling the shoes of departed striker Thierry Henry, but he must continue his good form if the Gunners are to remain near the top of the standings.

Arsenal is coming off of a 3-1 win over Portsmouth last time out, and has shown the quality to stay in the title race over the course of the season.

Manager Arsene Wenger is facing a number of lineup choices, especially in goal. Starter Jens Lehmann allowed two terrible goals in the team's first two games, and has not played since because of an Achilles injury.

The German international has recovered from that problem and played for Germany this past week, but an elbow injury is now the reason that Manuel Almunia will remain in goal, sparing Wenger the difficult decision for another week.

"At the moment I have not really wondered," Wenger told the club's website. "I knew yesterday that Jens could not play so we go for continuity at the moment. We'll see what happens [when he comes back] but this is not the only difficult decision I have to make right now."

Almunia has been solid in Lehmann's absence, and it will be interesting to see if Wenger is willing to put the unsteady Lehmann back in the lineup if Almunia is playing well.

It remains to be seen how newly-signed Lassana Diarra will fit into this team, and with Mathieu Flamini playing well at right back, Wenger must decide if he wants to put Bacary Sagna back into that spot or keep going with the in-form Flamini.

Jol would like to have to make such decisions, but for now he will settle for a few positive results to get himself out of hot water.

Spurs carried lofty expectations into this season, but their terrible start has left Jol's future with the team in jeopardy.

If Tottenham drops Saturday's game to Arsenal, you can expect the clock to start ticking on Jol's time with the team. A turnaround is needed now, but it may have to wait a week with Arsenal coming to town.

In other action on Saturday, Manchester United will have Cristiano Ronaldo and possibly Wayne Rooney back in the lineup at Everton, league-leaders Liverpool visit bottom-half club Portsmouth, struggling sides Bolton and Birmingham tussle at St. Andrews Stadium and Reading takes on Sunderland. Middlesbrough travels to Upton Park to meet West Ham, Wigan entertains Fulham and Chelsea, coming off of a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa, hosts Blackburn.

Sunday's game features Aston Villa, coming off of that big win against Chelsea, taking on Manchester City, while Newcastle and Derby round out the weekend's action on Monday.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.