Red Wings aim for another victory in Chicago

Hockey Betting Lines

02/27/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings will try to rebound from consecutive close losses when they visit the Chicago Blackhawks tonight at the United Center.

Detroit had won three straight before dropping a shootout decision to visiting Edmonton on Friday and losing an overtime test to the Nashville Predators on Saturday.

The game against the Predators was a big one, considering Detroit is in the midst of a battle for postseason positioning with Nashville. The Red Wings, who have 86 points this year, are currently two points behind Nashville for first place in the Central Division and the top spot in the Western Conference.

Saturday's loss came after Peter Forsberg's goal 2:11 into overtime handed Nashville the 4-3 decision at Gaylord Entertainment Center.

Tomas Holmstrom notched his third career hat trick for the Red Wings, who have a hefty nine-point edge over Dallas for the fourth spot in the Western Conference.

Mathieu Schneider picked up three assists and Pavel Datsyuk had two in a losing cause. Chris Osgood made 25 saves, but fell to 6-4-2 on the year.

The Red Wings tried to give themselves a boost in the playoff race by trading for forward Kyle Calder on Monday. The Philadelphia Flyers sent Calder to Detroit in a three-team deal that saw also the Red Wings ship forward Jason Williams to Chicago. The Blackhawks sent defenseman Lasse Kukkonen and a third-round pick in 2007 to Philadelphia, then Chicago dealt Calder to Detroit for Williams.

Tonight marks the end of a brief two-game road trip for the Red Wings, who are 17-13-4 as the visiting team this year.

The Blackhawks will try to stay on the winning track tonight after ending a five-game losing streak Sunday against St. Louis. Duncan Keith, Adrian Aucoin and Bryan Smolinski each scored first-period goals as Chicago smoked the Blues, 5-1.

Martin Havlat posted a goal and two assists while Nikolai Khabibulin finished with 22 saves for the Blackhawks, who have 55 points and come into tonight's game tied with Columbus for last place in the Central Division.

The Blackhawks, who are 12-14-4 as the host thus year, are playing the third test of a four-game homestand tonight.

The Red Wings have dominated the series with Chicago in recent years, winning five straight and 12 of the last 13 encounters between the clubs. Detroit is 4-0 against the Blackhawks this year and has also taken six in a row in the Windy City.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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