Hearts hopes to turn it around vs. first-place Rangers

Soccer Betting Lines

09/14/2007 - Edinburgh, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heading into the Scottish Premier League season, many thought that if any team could compete with Celtic and Rangers, it would be Hearts.

However, through five matches, it appears that Hearts is falling short in the pre-season predictions. The club, which faces Rangers at Tynecastle on Saturday, only has one victory and sits fourth from the bottom on the table.

"Hearts haven't had the start they wanted, but there is nothing like a game against the Old Firm to bring us into focus," said Rangers manager Walter Smith.

Hearts picked up its sole win in its last outing, close to two weeks ago against Motherwell.

"Hearts have a number of good players and it's surprising they've had that start to the season," said Smith. "It is a very dangerous game for us."

Smith's squad will try to keep the top spot in the league, heading into the match with a two-point edge over second-place Celtic. Rangers has won all five of its outings, outscoring its opponents, 18-3, this season.

Between league matches, the Champions League and League Cup games, Rangers will be starting its busiest stretch of the year on Saturday with seven games in the next three weeks.

"We are fighting on a few fronts and how we use our pool of players will determine how successful we'll be," said Smith.

For the most part, Rangers has been able to stay healthy so far. The one causality for Saturday's match is former Hearts player, Andy Webster. Webster has an ankle injury and is expected to miss a week.

Celtic will also play on Saturday, with hopes of taking over first place. The defending champs will be hosting Motherwell at Celtic Park trying to stay undefeated on the season. Celtic's only blemish this season was a scoreless draw with Kilmarnock on opening weekend, but has since posted four straight victories.

In other matches on Saturday, Aberdeen seeks its second win when it welcomes Motherwell to town, Gretna is still looking for its first victory when it hosts Kilmarnock and Hibernian could take over the second spot with a win over Gretna.

The league will finish up on Sunday as St Mirren will try to move to .500 with a victory over fourth-place Dundee United.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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